Saturday, September 17, 2011
Monday, September 12, 2011
On the Economy
Vincent Reinhart: The influential former Fed economist sees a growing risk of a double-dip recession in the U.S.
"By lowering or eliminating the rate on excess reserves, banks would at least be forced to invest in government debt or corporate commercial paper even if they refuse to make more loans," says Alan Blinder, the Princeton economist who was a vice chairman of the central bank during the Clinton administration. "This is by no means a major weapon in reviving the economy, but the move would be marginally helpful."
The record also shows that recessions tend to occur whenever the high yield bond spread’s month-long average tops 700 bp. The only exception to this tendency was the second half of 2002, or when a recession failed to materialize notwithstanding the high yield bond spread’s 784 bp average of that span.
That’s the worry in the market as of Friday. If you look at CDS spreads from last week we see enormous moves across the board. And while Greece appears to be on the chopping block for some sort of haircut, it’s actually the other periphery nations that are becoming a concern. The markets appear to be telling us that if Greece goes then Portugal is next. And you can imagine where we go from there. Ireland, Italy and Spain are quickly moving up the list….
"By lowering or eliminating the rate on excess reserves, banks would at least be forced to invest in government debt or corporate commercial paper even if they refuse to make more loans," says Alan Blinder, the Princeton economist who was a vice chairman of the central bank during the Clinton administration. "This is by no means a major weapon in reviving the economy, but the move would be marginally helpful."
The record also shows that recessions tend to occur whenever the high yield bond spread’s month-long average tops 700 bp. The only exception to this tendency was the second half of 2002, or when a recession failed to materialize notwithstanding the high yield bond spread’s 784 bp average of that span.
That’s the worry in the market as of Friday. If you look at CDS spreads from last week we see enormous moves across the board. And while Greece appears to be on the chopping block for some sort of haircut, it’s actually the other periphery nations that are becoming a concern. The markets appear to be telling us that if Greece goes then Portugal is next. And you can imagine where we go from there. Ireland, Italy and Spain are quickly moving up the list….
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
TXN - Texas Instrument
Texas Instruments (TXN) numbers reduced at Oppenheimer.Shares of TXN now seen reaching $37. Estimates also cut, given lower expected order rates. Outperform rating.
Kaufman Brothers’ Mike Burton thinks the 3% growth that TI originally forecast for the quarter looks “aggressive,” and instead he sees results coming in flat, based on “sub-seasonal trends we are picking up from our channel checks,” and also results from “analog peers.”
-Link
Svanberg sees “sluggish order rates and a heightened degree of pessimism in relation to 2H11 demand trends,” with weakness “broad-based” and not limited to any one market.
-Link
Friday, September 2, 2011
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