AMD 30-Day Forecast & Trade Plan – February 2025
📊 Key Technical Levels & Market Overview
- Current Price: $112.01 (-6.27%)
- Resistance Levels: $119 (20-day EMA), $140 (200-day EMA), $125 (previous support turned resistance)
- Support Levels: $105 (recent low), $100 (psychological level), $95 (major support zone)
- Indicators:
- RSI: 38.92 (Near oversold)
- MACD: Strongly bearish, momentum accelerating downward
- IV Rank: 11% (Low implied volatility)
📌 Market Context:
AMD is in a strong downtrend, trading below both the 20-day and 200-day EMA, signaling continued weakness. The MACD is deep in negative territory, and RSI is approaching oversold—suggesting further downside but also a potential bounce if it reaches key support levels near $105-$100.
🔥 Bearish Put Debit Spread (Higher Probability Trade)
📉 If AMD stays below $115-$119 resistance, further downside toward $100-$105 is likely.
- Entry: Short below $112
- Target 1: $105
- Target 2: $100
- Stop-Loss: Above $120
📌 Options Play:
- Buy AMD $110 Put
- Sell AMD $105 Put
👉 ATM Put Debit Spread aligns with your strategy while keeping risk defined.
⚠️ Bullish Rebound Setup (Lower Probability)
📈 If AMD holds $105 and reclaims $120, it could attempt a reversal toward $130+.
- Entry: Long above $120
- Target: $125-$130
- Stop-Loss: Below $110
📌 Options Play:
- Buy AMD $120 Call
- Sell AMD $125 Call
👉 Low IV means calls are cheaper, but spreads reduce risk.
🔎 Market Sentiment & Analysis
🔹 IV Rank 11% – Very low volatility, meaning options are cheap, favoring debit spreads over credit spreads.
🔹 MACD Deep in Negative Territory – Suggests strong bearish momentum.
🔹 RSI Nearing 30 – If AMD hits $105, watch for oversold conditions and a possible bounce.
🚀 Final Takeaways
✅ Bearish bias as long as AMD remains below $119
✅ Put debit spreads offer a high-probability trade toward $105-$100
✅ Watch for a temporary bounce near $105 if RSI becomes oversold
