AMZN 30-Day Forecast & Trade Plan – February 2025
📊 Key Technical Levels & Market Overview
- Current Price: $237.68 (+1.30%)
- Resistance Levels: $241.77 (recent high), $250 (psychological resistance)
- Support Levels: $230 (short-term), $220 (stronger support), $196.38 (200-day EMA)
- Indicators:
- RSI: 64.26 (Approaching overbought)
- MACD: Bullish, with strong momentum
- IV Rank: 69% (Elevated implied volatility)
📌 Market Context:
Amazon (AMZN) is trading near highs, maintaining strong bullish momentum. RSI is nearing overbought levels, and MACD is still rising, signaling continued upside potential. However, IV is elevated, meaning options are more expensive, favoring spreads over outright calls.
🔥 Bullish Call Debit Spread (Momentum Trade)
📈 If AMZN breaks and holds above $241.77, it could push toward $250+.
- Entry: Long above $238
- Target 1: $245
- Target 2: $250
- Stop-Loss: Below $230
📌 Options Play:
- Buy AMZN $240 Call
- Sell AMZN $245 Call
👉 ATM Call Debit Spread reduces exposure to high IV while capturing upside.
⚠️ Bearish Reversal Setup
📉 If AMZN rejects $241.77 and drops below $230, it could fall to $220 or lower.
- Entry: Short below $230
- Target: $220, then $215
- Stop-Loss: Above $238
📌 Options Play:
- Buy AMZN $230 Put
- Sell AMZN $225 Put
👉 Credit spreads could work here as well since IV is elevated.
🔎 Market Sentiment & Analysis
🔹 IV Rank 69% – High volatility favors debit spreads over single options.
🔹 MACD bullish – Indicates continued momentum.
🔹 RSI approaching 70 – Could trigger a temporary pullback if overbought.
🚀 Final Takeaways
✅ Bullish bias as long as AMZN holds above $230
✅ Call debit spreads offer strong risk/reward given high IV
✅ Watch for rejection at $241.77 or breakdown below $230
