AAPL (Apple Inc) Technical Analysis

 

AAPL (Apple Inc) Technical Analysis – January 2025

Current Market Overview:

• Current Price: $222.64 (-3.19%)
• Key Moving Averages:
  • 200-day EMA: $220.98 (recently tested support)
  • 20-day EMA: $238.89 (acting as resistance)
• Recent High: $260.10

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Technical Indicators Analysis:

1. Relative Strength Index (RSI):

   • Current Value: 29.69
   • RSI is in oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but the overall trend remains weak.

2. Implied Volatility (IV):

   • IV Rank: 52% (moderate)
   • IV Percentile: 94% (high relative to the past year)
   • Implication: Options premiums are relatively elevated; strategies such as selling premium could be attractive.

3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

   • Bearish crossover with MACD below the signal line, showing negative momentum.
   • Increasing red histogram bars suggest continued downward momentum.

4. Money Flow Index (MFI):

   • Current Value: 17.33 (very low)
   • This indicates significant selling pressure with no major inflows.

5. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF):

   • Current Value: 0.075 (neutral)
   • Shows slight positive accumulation despite the downtrend.

6. Average True Range (ATR):

   • Current Value: 5.46
   • Higher volatility, suggesting larger price swings ahead.

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Bias:

Bearish to Neutral.

• Despite oversold conditions, the trend remains downward with weak momentum indicators.
• A break below the 200-day EMA ($220) could trigger further downside.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $220 (critical level), $210
• Resistance: $235 (20-day EMA), $250

Trade Recommendations:

Bear Call Spread (Risk-Defined Bearish Strategy)

If expecting further downside:

• Sell the $230 Call
• Buy the $240 Call
• Expiration: 30-45 days
• Potential Outcome: Profits if AAPL stays below $230.