NKE (Nike) Technical Analysis - January 2025
Technical Overview:
Current Price: $73.79
Key Levels:
- Support: $70.32 (recent low)
- Resistance: $73.44 (20-day EMA), $82.85 (200-day EMA)
Indicators:
- 20-day EMA: $73.44 (acting as short-term resistance)
- 200-day EMA: $82.85 (long-term bearish trend confirmation)
- RSI: 48.94 (neutral, no strong buying pressure)
- MACD: Negative, with a slight convergence (weak momentum)
- Money Flow Index (MFI): 45.96 (neutral, balanced buying/selling pressure)
- Implied Volatility:
- IV Rank: 38%
- IV Percentile: 21% (indicating relatively low volatility)
Bias:
Neutral to slightly bearish
- The stock is trading below key resistance levels, with weak momentum indicators and a lack of bullish confirmation.
- The 20-day EMA presents immediate resistance, with a downward bias until a breakout occurs.
- Support at $70.32 is crucial; a break below this level could lead to further downside.
Higher Probability Trade:
Bear Call Spread (Credit Spread - Higher Probability)
- Sell the $75 Call
- Buy the $80 Call
- Expiration: 30-45 days
- Rationale:
- Profitable if NKE stays below $75 resistance.
- Takes advantage of time decay and relatively low IV.
Conclusion:
- Preferred Trade: Bear Call Spread – High probability given current resistance levels.
- Key Watch Levels: Monitor price action around $73.44 (EMA) and $70.32 support for confirmation of bias.
- Risk Management: Consider stop-losses below $70 for bullish trades and above $75 for bearish trades.
